The Jade Monkey

I didn't have a superiority complex until inferior people gave me one.

Name:
Location: San Antonio, Texas, United States

11.26.2004

Best.Episode.Ever.

If you're a Survivor fan, you had to love last night's episode. The challenges were rather lame (family visit challenge is always a big weepy timesuck, but it's bearable if there's at least an interesting challenge or interesting family member - we got a marginally interesting family member in Eliza's mom, but the challenge was awful and the IC involving the loved ones wasn't much better), but it is so rare in this game that people take the opportunity to change their fates when they have it. You have to love seeing people who can't stand each other (Scout and Twila vs. Eliza) team up. You have to love the arrogant one (feminazi Ami) getting her smug smirk wiped off her face (only thing better would have been her not having immunity and getting the boot instead of Leann). The only comparable examples are the fall of the Rotu 4 in Marquesas and perhaps Sandra's victory in Pearl Islands. In every other iteration, the sheep have meekly accepted their fates, despite the anguished screams of millions of viewers to "DO SOMETHING!"

I think Scout and Twila have basically killed any chance they have of winning now, unless they are facing each other, though, because they stabbed the guys in the back and now the other girls (they might have a chance against Eliza, but I'd call it a tossup). I couldn't stand Eliza early on, and have not cared much for Scout in the past, but at this point I would be happy to see any of this new 4-person alliance win.

I predicted long ago that Eliza would be the last of the women standing (though I envisioned an opposite scenario, where the men greatly outnumbered the women, and her being in Chris' place, and that it would be because she teamed up with the guys against the women who hated her), and that's still looking like a decent bet, although it could easily be Twila at this point (if Chris wins the final IC, I think he, like the rest of the men, likes Twila the best, but would that be a motivating factor to take her to the F2 or to not do so? I doubt even she could get Lea and Chad's vote over Chris, so it may not matter). I also predicted a man would win this season (though it was more of a Vanuatu/Fire/Male thing to balance the Amazon/Water/Woman thing, with no real objective basis) and that would leave Chris as my projected winner at this point. That still seems at best a tossup, but nowhere near as much of a reach as it did before last night.

One other curious note is that Julie is the only remaining contestant that pre-season boot list spoilers didn't place in the jury. Which may mean she somehow survives the new turn of events (by going on a Kelly W. or Darrah type immunity run) and lands in the final 2 - still not in the jury. Another scenario under which this could occur is Scout and Twila trying to ditch Eliza yet again after booting Ami next week by teaming with Julie (or even just Chris), but Julie tells Eliza and J/E/C boot S/T. Julie's then in the F3 and just needs to win the final IC to make F2.

My best guess as to how the final 6 shake down: (next out) Ami, Julie, Scout, Twila, Eliza, Chris (winner). And for the hell of it I'll make a guess as to how the jury will vote: Chris - Lea, Chad, Twila, Scout; Eliza - Ami, Leann, Julie (but Leann and Julie are tossups).

Well that was a bunch of verbal diarrhea, wasn't it (I love parentheses)?

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