The Jade Monkey

I didn't have a superiority complex until inferior people gave me one.

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Location: San Antonio, Texas, United States

5.15.2005

Reality TV Ramblings

Survivor finale is tonight! Been a pretty entertaining season, despite (and perhaps partially becasue of) Ulong's self-destruction. I'm predicting a Tom win. Previews say the first TC is "shocking" with Ian looking "shocked." Dollars to donuts that's typical MB misdirection - Ian's not going anywhere, yet. My guess is that Tom and Jen decides to form an alliance of convenience (probably against Ian) while Ian and Katie vote against Jen (or maybe Tom, though I think in that case Jen would be in on it with them, despite a final 2 pact with Tom being a better deal). Tom will then switch his vote, Jen goes home in the expected 4th place, Tom wins the final immunity and takes Katie over Ian, and wins the million dollars.

Although, I'm not sure that Katie's chances are really all that bad as she (and I) might think. Caryn's really the only one I would see as a lock to vote against her (they never got along) although she may be miffed at Tom and Ian turning against her. Steph, despite her crying and theatrics and Tom being the ringleader of the alliance (though it was really Gregg pushing for her ouster over Janu and Caryn) probably respects Tom as another strong game player. She's his second strongest vote, I suspect. Jen and Gregg could vote for Katie, because it was Tom and Ian that orchestrated their ouster (Gregg was in the "knucklehead" club with Tom and Ian though, so who knows). Katie turned on them at the last minute, but they may accept that Ian didn't give her much choice. In the middle are Ian himself, who despite a very tight alliance with Tom has a closer friendship with Katie, and his insistence last week that he won't be stupid again (plus Tom would be voting him out in the scenario I lay out above), Coby has complained about the women doing nothing and wanting to push them in the fire, but has been just as whiny about the boys excluding him. For him, I suspect the latter probably outweighs the former. And who knows what Janu thinks (though she may side with Tom since he often tried to give her pep talks during her constant mopings). So I could see a 7-0 vote for Tom, but also as much as a 5-2 vote for Katie. Still, none of Katie's would-be votes are a sure thing at all. My guess is a 5-2 Tom win (with 2 of Jen, Ian and Coby being the dissenters).

ETA: pretty much nailed the finale! Didn't expect a couple things (the way the tie-breaker went down, Ian quitting, Katie giving such a spectacularly bad performance at the final tribal), but I got the general story arc down. Congrats to Tom, he totally dominated the game and deserved it. Katie could have made a much better case for herself, and against another opponent maybe even won, but I don't really think anything could have made a difference facing Tom Terriffic.

Also want to gloat about Romber FINALLY getting their comeuppance in their loss in the TAR finale to Uchenna and Joyce (yay!) I can't for the life of me understand how anyone likes Rob the annoying moron. I think I'll be skipping their televised attention-whoring wedding. Poor Rob...Amber gets to be the bride, but he's always the bridesmaid *snicker*

Also, what's up with The Contender tonight? I can't imagine MB would put one of his products up against the other. Maybe it'll take the week off (perhaps the double episode two weeks ago was so it wouldn't have to go up against the Survivor finale tonight?). I'm really enjoying this show. Love Alphonso, his 2 fights have been the best, both times getting me to my feet and cheering. A bit conflicted about Peter getting to come back though, and in all probability fulfilling the spolier and getting to fight in the live finale despite having previously lost - it would be like Lillian or Burton winning Survivor 7 after being voted out. My gut as to how the final 2 episodes play out is that Sergio wins choice and pits his buddy Fonso up against Peter, and the foreshadowing about it being tough to beat a guy twice comes to pass, Fonso losing the rematch (possibly Jesse or Peter wins choice and forces Sergio and Fonso against each other, Peter to fight Jesse as the weakest link, or Jesse realizing despite Peter's #3 world ranking, he's lost once and wasn't convincing in either of his subsequent wins). Sergio fights weakest link Jesse the next week and wins, meeting Peter in the championship bout.

Finally, I haven't watched but maybe 60 total minutes of AI this season (stopped watching after JPL's boot last season, except for the finale in which, despite being inferior all season long and never belonging there in the first place (mostly because of her young age), Diana outperformed Fantasia who herself was no better than perhaps the 4th best singer in the final 12), and I really couldn't care less, but this seems like the best final 3 apart from season 2 with Clay, Ruben and Kim Locke (although I think all three of them are better than any of these 3). I'm going to guess it mirrors that seaosn's final 3 too, with the good-but-overrated Bo winning on the strength of a rabid fan base, the most talented vocally, Carrie, taking a close second, and the late-charging late-bloomer, Vonzell taking third. But like the 2nd season, the difference between the 3 is so slight that any would be a worthy winner (though the gap between Vonzell and Carrie/Bo is probably slightly greater than that between KLo and Clay/Ruben).

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